Lesson 04 · Risk Management

Risk management is the only skill that matters long-term.

Strategy gets you wins. Risk management keeps you alive long enough to compound them. The traders who last 10 years aren't the ones with the best entries — they're the ones who never blow up.

The 1% rule

The single most important rule in this entire site: never risk more than 1% of your account on a single trade. If you have a $10,000 account, your maximum loss on any one position is $100. Period.

Why 1%? Because losing streaks happen. Even a 60% win-rate strategy will hit 5 losses in a row eventually. At 1% risk, that's a 5% drawdown — annoying but recoverable. At 5% risk, it's a 25% drawdown that takes a 33% gain to recover. At 10% risk, it's career-ending.

The Math of Drawdowns

A 10% drawdown needs an 11% gain to recover. A 25% drawdown needs 33%. A 50% drawdown needs 100%. The deeper the hole, the harder it is to climb out — which is why the goal is never to dig the hole.

Stop-loss: the price you're wrong at

Every trade needs a stop. Not a "mental stop" — a real, pre-defined price where you exit, no matter what your feelings say at the time. The stop should be placed at a level that, if reached, proves your thesis wrong. Not a random percentage — a logical chart point.

If your stop is too tight, you get noise-stopped repeatedly. Too wide, you risk too much. The right distance is "just past the level that would invalidate the setup" — and you size your position to make that distance equal to your 1%.

Position sizing — the formula that ties it all together

Once you know your stop and your max risk, position size is just math:

Shares = (Account × Risk %) ÷ (Entry − Stop)

Example: $10,000 account, 1% risk = $100. Entry at $50, stop at $48. Distance is $2. Shares = $100 ÷ $2 = 50 shares. That position costs $2,500 to put on, but your max loss is only $100.

Notice that the dollar value of the trade is irrelevant. What matters is the dollar amount you're risking. Use the position sizer to do this in seconds — or read the full position sizing lesson.

Risk:reward — the second half of expectancy

Risk:reward (or R:R) is the ratio of how much you stand to lose vs. how much you stand to win. If your stop is $2 away and your target is $4 away, you have a 1:2 R:R — risking 1R to make 2R.

Most professional traders refuse trades below 1:2 and prefer 1:3 or better. Here's why it matters: at 1:2 R:R, you only need a 34% win rate to be profitable. At 1:3, you only need 26%. Bad math (1:1 R:R, 50% win rate) is a coin flip after fees.

Expectancy — the only number that matters

Expectancy tells you what an average trade is worth in your strategy:

Expectancy = (Win % × Avg Win) − (Loss % × Avg Loss)

If your expectancy is positive, you make money over time. If it's negative, no amount of "discipline" will save you — your strategy needs to change. Track every trade in a journal so you can compute this honestly.

Daily and weekly limits

Even with 1% per trade, a bad day can cascade. Set hard limits:

The behavioral piece

The 1% rule fails the moment you "make an exception." That's why the rule isn't really about money — it's about building the identity of a trader who doesn't break rules. Read the trading psychology lesson for how to actually do this.

Use our trading simulator to log real reps with the journal feature — every trade gets a 1–5 plan-adherence score. Over 50 trades you'll see your honest behavior, not your imagined behavior.

Build the rules. Drill the rules.

The simulator forces you to set stop, target, and reason on every trade.

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